Expected goals, conversion rates, and performance divergence across 30 matches.
| League | Matches | Goals/Game | xG/Game | Conversion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 10 | 2.40 | 3.14 | 76% |
| Serie A | 10 | 2.80 | 2.93 | 95% |
| La Liga | 10 | 3.10 | 2.52 | 123% |
Teams generating the most expected goals per game
Teams conceding the least expected goals per game
Matches where the scoreline and the xG story diverged most — luck, heroics, or variance
Expected Goals quantifies the quality of a shot based on its location, type, and context. A penalty is ~0.76 xG. A header from 25 yards is ~0.02 xG. It's a measure of how well a team created (or conceded) chances — independent of whether they went in.
Goals ÷ xG. Above 1.0 means a team is scoring more than expected — either clinical finishing or statistical luck. Below 1.0 means they're leaving xG on the pitch. Statistical regression toward 1.0 is expected over large sample sizes.
When a match result contradicts the xG story, something unusual happened: a goalkeeper error, a missed penalty, a goal from a marginal chance. High divergence matches are flagged — they often contain signals about team quality that raw results hide.